‘Historic’: Global climate plans can now keep temperature below 2°C, says study | climate crisis

For the first time, the world is in a position to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, according to the first in-depth analysis of net-zero pledges countries made at the United Nations. policeman 26 Climate Summit in December.

Prior to these pledges, it was likely that at the height of the climate crisis there would be High temperature above 2°C, causing much more serious impacts to billions of people. The maximum temperature rise is now likely to be around 1.9°C.

However, the researchers said this depends on all countries implementing their pledges on time and in full, and they caution that the policies needed to do so are not in place. The pledges also include those that developing countries have said will not happen without more financial and technical support.

The fulfillment of the pledges needed to reduce 2C was a “historic milestone” and good news, the scientists said. However, they said the bad news was that the reductions in global emissions currently planned for 2030 were far from being on track to keep the peak below 1.5°C. This is the global goal, but there is currently less than a 10% chance of achieving this goal.

People all over the planet are already facing spiraling heat waves, floods and storms with temperatures as high as 1.2°C due to human emissions so far, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned in 2018 of Much worse if heating continues above 1.5°C.

Christoph McGlade of International said the 2C limit in hand was “important news” energy Agency, a member of the team behind the new analysis. “It’s the first time governments have come forward with specific targets that could bring global warming below the symbolic 2C level.”

“It is clear that these results are cause for optimism,” he added. We have come a long way since the Paris Agreement was signed back in 2015. But now the real work must begin. Pledges are not yet backed by the strong, credible, near-term policies needed to make them a reality.”

Another member of the team, Professor Malte Minshausen of the University of Melbourne in Australia, said that having a 2C boundary on the horizon was a “historic milestone”.

But he said, “Our study also clearly shows that increased work this decade is necessary. Otherwise, we will blow the remaining carbon budget to 1.5°C.” A major report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said earlier in April that global emissions should peak and Begins to decline within 30 months To keep the 1.5C target alive.

new analysis, Published in the journal Nature, is the first peer-reviewed study to assess the peak temperature rise that may result from countries meeting their commitments. It used two independent modeling approaches, one of which evaluated more than 1,400 different scenarios, and included recent pledges on shipping and aviation emissions.

At the end of the policeman 26153 countries have made new climate pledges to the United Nations, with countries responsible for 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions committing to reach net zero between 2050 and 2070. The planet is responding to rising emissions meaning there is still a 5% chance of a rise The temperature is about 2.8 degrees Celsius.

Indeed, today’s climate policies mean a peak of about 2.6 degrees Celsius, McGlade said, leading to “severe climate damage worldwide.” The commitments countries have made so far until 2030 have reduced that peak to 2.4°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said limiting heating to 1.5°C would require a 45% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 compared to 2010.

But emissions were on course to rise 7-15% by 2030, a “realistic assessment”, the scientists said, with any delay in action making 1.5°C “out of reach”. If the world exceeds this goal, then a guarantee.”A livable future“For the massive release of technology that can absorb carbon dioxide from the air, as well as reforestation on a large scale.

The new research has given a much clearer picture of our possible climate future, Francis Moore, of the University of California, and Zeke Hausfather, head of climate research at Stripe, said in a comment in Nature. They said it showed that the goal of stepping up the initial climate pledges made in 2015 in Paris had been “partially achieved”.

“But optimism should be curbed until promises of future emissions cuts are backed up by stronger measures in the short term,” they said. “It is easy to set ambitious climate goals for 30, 40 or even 50 years into the future, but it is very difficult to enact policies [needed] today.”

Moore and Hausfather also warned of the danger of geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s war in Ukraine: “It would be a mistake to dismiss a future characterized by a resurgence of nationalism that strains global cooperation and leads to increased dependence on domestic fossil fuel resources and a corresponding rise in emissions.”

“Policy makers are at a crossroads,” McGlade said. We can choose to lock up emissions and deepen the energy crisis. Or we can use this moment to take an honest step toward a cleaner and safer future.”

McGlade said there are many policies that can have immediate or near-term effects on energy and climate crises, including lowering speed limits on roads, accelerating the deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and stopping the venting of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. , from oil and gas production facilities and put them into supply instead.