Taiwan’s leader’s visit to the United States may provoke a “big” reaction from China

Anna Ashton, China director at the Eurasia Group, said the meeting between Taiwan’s leader and the US House of Representatives speaker would trigger a strong response from China.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to meet face to face Kevin McCarthy When she was He is in transit through Los Angeles next week. Tsai is currently on a 10-day trip to visit Central American allies Belize and Guatemala.

The meeting with McCarthy has not been officially confirmed.

“The fact is McCarthy is third in line for the presidency,” Aston told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday. “A meeting like this would be the largest official American meeting with a Taiwanese president sitting on American soil ever.”

Beijing has already warned of its opposition to this meeting and we could see a reaction, even in the scale of the reaction after Pelosi’s visit.

Analysts warn that relations between the United States and China are deteriorating. Next week’s meeting between Tsai and McCarthy is likely to add to already simmering tensions.

China has repeatedly said that the issue with Taiwan is an internal matter. Beijing claims the self-governing island as part of its territory, and maintains that Taiwan should not have the right to establish foreign relations.

The Biden administration has been keen to downplay Tsai’s latest crossing, calling it “unofficial.”

“On all previous transits, she has met with members of Congress, as well as state and local officials, and made public appearances,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. at a press conference Wednesday.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has strong words for the United States

“The trip is not just a ‘transit’, but an attempt to seek breakthroughs and spread ‘Taiwan independence’,” said the spokeswoman. Mao NingOn Wednesday at a regular press conference. “The issue is not about China overreacting, but the United States flagrantly colluding with and supporting the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”

Beijing has constantly warned that Taiwan is the “first red line” It must not be exceeded.

Ashton noted that it is important to note that China has often said it favors long-term peaceful reunification with Taiwan.

“Time is on China’s side and always has been — except for the fact that the US has become less predictable,” the analyst said.

“Crossing China’s red lines by the US could push China into a position where it feels compelled to use force and act more assertively as it protects what it views as its interests against US efforts to block it.”