April 27, 2024

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China's retail sales and industrial data for the first two months beat expectations

China's retail sales and industrial data for the first two months beat expectations

Investment in fixed assets rose by 4.2%, more than analysts' expectations of 3.2%.

The unemployment rate in February for cities was 5.3%.

Online retail sales of physical goods rose 14.4% from a year earlier during the first two months of the year.

Investment in real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year compared to last year. Investment in infrastructure rose by 6.3% while investment in manufacturing increased by 9.4% during that period.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Liu Aihua said real estate is still in an “adjustment” period, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin statement.

When asked about the unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24, Liu said the numbers would be released a few days after the monthly press conference on economic data.

Economic numbers for January and February in China are usually combined to smooth out differences from the Lunar New Year, which can fall in either month depending on the calendar year. It is the country's largest national holiday, with factories and businesses remaining closed for at least a week.

This year, the number of domestic tourist trips and revenue during the holiday is up compared to last year as well as the pre-pandemic numbers from 2019. But Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, noted that “average tourist spending per trip is still 9.5 percent lower.” %”. pre-pandemic levels in 2019.”

Retail sales have not rebounded from the pandemic as strongly as many expected, as consumers become uncertain about their future income.

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Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report on Friday that new loans in February fell short of expectations and fell from the previous month “even after adjusting for seasonality.”

“The continued weakness in real estate transactions and lower consumer sentiment may continue to impact household borrowing,” analysts said. “More monetary policy easing is needed.”

People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said earlier this month that there was still room to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of cash banks need to make available.

Goldman expects cuts of 25 basis points to that ratio in the second quarter of this year, as well as in the fourth quarter.

Real estate, which represents a large portion of household assets, has declined over the past few years after Beijing cracked down on developers' heavy reliance on debt for growth.

Average property prices in 70 major Chinese cities fell 4.5% in February from January on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis using a weighted average of official figures.

This is steeper than the 3.5% monthly decline in property prices in January, Goldman Sachs said.

“Our high-frequency tracker indicates that new home transaction volume in 30 cities fell by 53.2% [year-on-year] “In early March after adjusting to the basis of the lunar calendar,” the analysts said in their report.

The Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the huge real estate sector during the annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.

Instead, Beijing has emphasized the country's focus on developing manufacturing and technological capabilities.

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Data earlier this month showed that China's exports for January and February rose 7.1% in US dollars, beating expectations for a 1.9% increase.

Imports rose 3.5% during that period, also exceeding a Reuters forecast for growth of 1.5%.

This is a developing story. . Please check back for updates