April 16, 2024

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Election prediction of QC125 |  CAQ will drop to 11 seats

Election prediction of QC125 | CAQ will drop to 11 seats

If this trend continues, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) will collect only 11 seats in the next elections, far behind the Parti Québécois (PQ), which forms a majority government.


The QC125 site, which compiles polling data to produce election forecasts, predicted the worst result for the CAQ since the party was formed in 2011.

If the election were held today, Francois Legault's troops would win just 11 seats, up from 90 seats in the last election.

For his part, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will be elected presidentMajority government. His party would win 69 ridings, while the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) was the official opposition with 26 seats.

Photo by Edward Plant-Freshette, La Presse Archives

The leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamonton

Québec solidaire (QS) will follow with 14 seats, while the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) will win five ridings.

In terms of voting intention, the PQ maintains a good lead with 33% support compared to 23% for the CAQ. QS is third with 17%, followed by PLQ with 15% and PCQ with 11%.

In the space of a year, support for the CAQ has melted by almost half, as a result of a series of controversies – the historic strike in education, the return of the third Quebec-Lévis road link, the subsidy for the King's visit from Los Angeles to the Videotron Center.

During the same period, PQ observed the opposite curve. Their support continues to rise, surpassing the stagnant Solidarity and Liberals in the polls.

The next election is scheduled for October 2026.

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