Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party won the Indian state elections

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has notched a series of resounding victories in Indian state elections, strengthening its grip on national politics ahead of next year’s general elections.

The BJP achieved a majority in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – three states in the northern Hindi-speaking belt in terms of population density and political influence – flipping the latter two states away from its opposition rival Indian National Congress.

Modi announced his party’s victory on Sunday evening. “The results in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan indicate that the people of India strongly support good governance and development policies,” he wrote on social media platform X.

Congress won a majority only in Telangana, a prosperous southern state. The party’s defeat in northern India in the closely watched polls would deal a blow to efforts to secure its place as a major contender next year.

National elections, in which Modi hopes to secure a third term as prime minister, are expected to begin in April.

“Modi’s appeal remains very strong in the heart of India,” said Asim Ali, a Delhi-based political commentator. The Prime Minister and his allies will now have “complete freedom to run the 2024 campaign.” Ali added: “If the BJP had performed poorly in these elections, I think a rift would have started.”

Smriti Irani, a BJP minister, said the results were evidence of Modi’s “magic” – what party loyalists call the prime minister’s personal popularity and ability to win votes.

The party relied heavily on Modi to lead its election campaign, which was volatile during November. The Prime Minister spent weeks traveling across states touting the BJP’s record.

Mizoram, the fifth smallest state in northeastern India, will announce its results on Monday. Elections there are primarily a competition between regional parties, with limited influence on national politics.

The biggest surprise was in the state of Chhattisgarh, which is ruled by the Congress Party, which is a state rich in minerals and which pollsters expected the opposition to retain. As of Sunday night, the BJP was leading in 54 of the state’s 90 seats, according to the Election Commission of India, an increase of 39 seats from the previous state election in 2018.

Political scientists say there is limited evidence of a relationship between state-level and national outcomes. However, the result makes Congress look weak at a critical time for the party, which dominated Indian politics for decades until Modi’s ascension to the premiership in 2014.

Supriya Shrinate, Congress spokesperson, admitted that the results in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh were “very shocking”.

“The way we read the election and the kind of feedback we received from the ground was completely different,” she told an Indian TV channel.

The party, controlled by the Nehru-Gandhi family, is seeking to build electoral momentum after defeating the BJP in the southern state of Karnataka earlier this year.

But Sunday’s results are expected to leave Congress in full control of just one state in northern India, Himachal Pradesh in the Himalayas.

Analysts said this could reduce Congress’s power in the National Opposition Alliance, known simply as India, which is scheduled to meet within days to prepare its strategy for next year.

“There is a much greater need for opposition unity,” Ali said. “The Congress party must be humble enough to accept that it does not have it [broad] A support base in the north.”