The Portuguese election is too close to be called with the far right on the rise

Portugal's center-right achieved an electoral victory by a narrow margin, but its chance of forming a majority government is slim.

Democratic Alliance leader Luis Montenegro told his supporters that the Portuguese had voted for change, although the margin of victory was less than convincing.

Both major parties received about 29% of the vote.

Only the far-right Chega party has been able to claim clear success.

Five years after storming into Portuguese politics, the party led by former soccer pundit Andre Ventura has won 18% of the vote and 48 seats in the 230-seat parliament.

Political commentators say Portugal faces its most divided parliament since the end of the dictatorship half a century ago.

Ten million Portuguese had the chance to cast their votes in early elections on Sunday, four months after Socialist Prime Minister António Costa resigned amid allegations of corruption, although he was never named as a suspect.

It was Costa who warned Portuguese television viewers late on Sunday night that they could be heading towards a “potential tie” between the Socialists and the centre-right Democratic Alliance, with only four seats outside Portugal yet to be declared.

But soon after, the man who replaced him as Socialist leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, conceded victory, declaring: “We will lead the opposition, we will renew the party and try to win back those Portuguese who are dissatisfied with the Socialist Party.”

Luis Montenegro told his supporters that he is now convinced that the President of the Republic will hand over the center-right to the task of forming the next government.

“I have always said that winning the election means getting one vote more than any other candidate, and only under these circumstances will I accept to be prime minister.”

After counting all the votes, except for the four external seats, his Democratic Alliance won 79 seats, two more than his socialist competitors.

He added that voters made it clear that they want a new government, a change in policies, and giving greater priority to dialogue between political leaders.

Former center-right leader Luis Márquez Méndez said there had never been an election night like this before: “I think we will have new elections early next year.”

The whole matter seemed clearer when opinion polls gave the center right a clearer margin of victory. Supporters chanted “Portugal, Portugal” as their leader's face appeared on television.

The participation rate was the highest in years, reaching 66%, even though the last elections were only two years ago.

It quickly became clear that the far-right Chiga (Enough) party had strengthened its bid to become the third force in Portuguese politics.

Andre Ventura's party won 18% of the votes, after a campaign that focused on corruption and immigration.

He and his party, a former center-right chancellor, pinned their hopes on becoming kingmakers and hailed an “absolutely historic” night.

“This is the night that two-party rule in Portugal ended,” he told his cheering supporters. “Chiga has historically exceeded one million votes in Portugal.”

Luis Montenegro has already condemned Mr. Ventura, a former party colleague, as a xenophobe and a racist, and made clear in his victory speech that he would not make any deals with him.

The populists made significant gains, especially in the south, including the Algarve region, but fared less well in the northern port city of Porto.

The center right was not without its own problems. The Social Democratic Party, which dominates the Democratic Alliance, has been implicated in a regional scandal in Madeira.

The Chiga leader said his party is ready to help form the next government. But although he has softened some of his policies, and dropped demands for chemical castration of rapists, there seems little chance that he would have any role at this point.

It is also clear that the two major parties will not find sufficient common ground between them to form a government.

This leaves the center right looking ahead to months of minority government, with the difficult task of securing support for next year's budget in October.

Socialist Finance Minister Fernando Medina warned of a political picture that was witnessing “great fragility and instability.”

After years of economic gloom, the Socialists can claim to have returned Portugal to growth of 2.3% last year, although the outlook for 2024 is less rosy.

However, salaries are low and rents are rising, leading to increasing dissatisfaction with the center-left.

Former presidential candidate Ana Gomez noted that many voters in the Algarve may have supported Chiga because the government failed to respond to people's problems such as rising prices and reduced water supplies.