Cold in March: A major irreversible trend?

Soft food

The cold did not reach Quebec this winter. Obviously, it's relative because it's not hot. Arctic air descent had a limited impact and was short-lived. This trend will continue in March, at least in the first weeks. Temperatures should be higher than seasonal values ​​in the prevailing atmospheric environment. As of March 6, the average high goes above freezing in the south of the province.

“The redox axis is still working very well,” says meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. For a part of Margazhi month, the descending front of cold air will move towards the west of the continent. The direction of the wind currents will favor an increase in heat towards Quebec in the coming weeks. Heat began to develop in southern latitudes. Any upsurge of wind towards Quebec will still surprise us. So we are not done knowing the April weather in winter. Remember that it moves into Spring on March 19. »

Paradigm shift

Winter may not have the last word when it comes to cold. However, the change in regime will have a more mixed impact at the end of the month. The intensity and duration of this reversal of the situation remains to be determined at this time.

“We still see the possibility of a reversal of conditions in regions further north,” continues Régène Ouimet. It takes place in the upper atmosphere. In fact, at the level of the stratosphere, more than 10 kilometers above the Earth's surface, we recognize an increase in temperature. It will be the 3rd day of winter. Probably the last of the season before next winter. Effects were few, if any. »

March in two stages

Between the first and second half of March, the seasonal average rises by 4°C in southern Quebec. The sun's rays are very effective in heating the atmosphere. However, this year's emerging scenario threatens to bring back the chill. As a result, the mildness expected in the first twenty days of the month should contrast with abnormal temperatures in late March (and even early April).

“The stars may align to bring arctic air to our regions in the last third of the month,” says Réjean Ouimet. Unusually cold at the end of March and may extend into April. In this case, the temperature cannot be described as freezing: the sun works in our favor at the end of March. The chances of that happening this year are slim to none.

In collaboration with meteorologists Patrick Duplessis and Rejean Ouimet.

See also: Snowmobilers buried in avalanches