Justin Trudeau will trigger four of the country’s five vacant ridings, namely Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount (Quebec), Oxford (Ontario), Portage-Lisgar and Winnipeg-Centre-Sud (Manitoba).
The riding of Calgary-Heritage (Alberta) has been vacant since Bob Benson retired from politics on December 31, 2022. Justin Trudeau will call voters to the federal ballot box in Alberta until after the provincial election.
That means a second round of by-elections could happen this summer.
Ottawa has been invited to the Calgary-Heritage area until June 29. In addition, the riding of Durham (Ontario) will be vacant in June, after former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole announced she will leave politics at the end of the parliamentary session.
After nearly eight years in power, amid controversy over foreign interference, Mr. Trudeau will want to use the opportunity this by-election presents to gauge the mood of Canadians toward his minority Liberal government.
For his part, Pierre Poilievre will not only want to check whether his attacks on the liberals work on the ground as well as online, but also to demonstrate that the change he is imposing on his party is popular with voters.
He filed for the waning People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar, a rural Manitoba seat. Still has some appeal.
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Quebec: This is Marc Garneau’s former riding. Former Liberal leader Anna Gainey is seeking the nomination.
- Oxford, Ontario: A controversial Conservative nomination meeting pushes incumbent Bob Mackenzie to the Liberals.
- Winnipeg South Centre, Manitoba: Liberal Jim Carr died in December. His son is his successor candidate.
- Portage–Lisker, Manitoba: Former interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen has retired from politics. Popular party leader Maxime Bernier will be the candidate.
- Calgary-Heritage, Alberta: This is Stephen Harper’s former riding. Conservative MP Bob Benson has retired from politics.
- DURHAM, Ontario: Former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is out, saying she’s at odds with Pierre Poilivre over the direction of their party.
Justin Trudeau’s challenges
Liberals like to take the temperature of the populationStephanie Sounard, associate professor of political science at the Royal Military College in Kingston, believes so.
Chinese interference and power fatigue may catch him in public opinion.
It’s also a chance for the University of Alberta to demonstrate that it can stand up to a Conservative leader with the intention of voting for the Liberal leader.
” Liberals want to know if the polls show the Conservatives leading, but whether that is actually transferring to the ballot or just social media. »
At the Liberal conference last weekend, Justin Trudeau’s troops praised the attacks on their opponent, Pierre Poilievre. However, away from a partisan crowd, the situation may be different.
These by-elections, according to Stéphanie Chouinard, will be an opportunity
Test these liberal policies against Pierre Poilievre and see how voters generally respond to these attacks..
At Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount (NDGW), the language question
Can play tricks on liberals, predicts the political scientist. Anglophones outnumber Francophones in this riding.
The story of Bill C-13 on French national security and the role current Liberal Marc Garneau played in this debate
Gives an indication of where the Anglophone vote isMrs. Chouinard believes.
We don’t see how the Liberals can afford to lose this riding.
But a decrease in the percentage of votes collected will be detrimentalAdds Frédéric Boily.
However, the Liberal nomination is not in the pocket NDGWTo Anna Gainey, Justin Trudeau’s preferred candidate. The filing of nominations will be held on Monday. But according to Liberal sources, the race is tighter than expected. We recall that Emmanuela Lambropoulos doubled star candidate Yolande James during the Liberal candidacy in Saint-Laurent in 2017.
New course to defend for Poilievre
Pierre Poilievre has a lot to do, especially after his party’s first-round defeat in Mississauga South last fall.
” He needs to demonstrate that the new direction he has given his Conservative Party is working, that his brand of conservatism will be appreciated by the public. »
In the vacant Conservative ridings of Manitoba and Ontario, Pierre Poilivre must show that he can win convincingly and not lose ground in terms of popular support.
A weak win would be bad news for the ConservativesFrédéric Boily in a nutshell.
The professor also mentions that Pierre Poilivre wants to win the election with a significant lead.
To prove that his anti-economic and anti-liberal message works better than that of his predecessor, Erin O’Toole.
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