Despite the CAQ’s comfortable lead, the election campaign that officially begins tomorrow could come as a surprise, in light of polls suggesting serious regional battles on four different fronts.
According to the first soundings of the election campaign, 42% of Quebec voters would return François Legault or one of the two French speakers to power.
Yet among Francophones, Liberal leader Dominique Anglade is pushing his party to historic lows, now reaching just 7%.
“It’s still a 35-point lead for Francois Legault among Francophones,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger. But even though François Legault has dominated voting intentions for four years, he notes, “not everything is going well for the CAQ.”
After more than two years of epidemic, among many unavoidable problems (vBlackboard), the dissatisfaction was palpable, at least in relation to the expectations Quebecers had of their government.
“On most of the topics examined, the government is performing less than expected,” said Mr. Leger notes. That, given the strength of the voting intention, surprises me. »
At the dawn of the election campaign, 38% of voters could still change their minds. So games are made in advance. “There will be surprises,” the pollster believes.
“During the election campaign, disaffection may emerge, this election is not over,” he opined.
The opposition was divided
42% of Quebecers support the CAQ, while another 58% vote against. “The CAQ is not very strong: the opposition is divided,” said Mr. Leger said.
A majority of Quebecers do not want to leave “absolute power” in the hands of the CAQ. So a big question remains unanswered by October 3: “Who’s the replacement,” the pollster wonders.
When voters were asked who would make the best opposition leader, 30% answered Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois of Québec solidaire, who scored twice as high as the leaders of the PCQ, PLQ and PQ, who trail each other by 2%. . For Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, Jean-Marc Léger believes that “the electoral campaign will have a lot of impact”.
According to him, the game will be played on four different fronts, not at the national level, during “regional wars”. Montreal’s eastern Quebec may be the most favorable battleground for Thiel. On the island, the Liberals would like to have more French-speaking ridings.
In the greater Quebec City area, the PCQ is to be seen, and in the east of the province, the Parti Québécois will try to save the day. Overall, 44% of voters believe that among the leaders, François Legault would still be the best prime minister.
In this regard, Eric Duhaime, leader of Quebec’s Conservative Party, has improved his position by five points compared to last month. The new player is now “as popular as his party,” said Mr. Leger observes.
Unsurprisingly, discontent with the Legault government remains among Eric Duheim’s conservatives. “The most ridiculous, the most anti-government, it’s not the left,” notes the pollster.
Strengths and Weaknesses
For the first time, five parties are in the starting line-up, which promises to be a very interesting match that officially starts tomorrow. Pollster Jean-Marc Léger, who has been taking the pulse of the electorate every month since the beginning of the year, gives us an overview of the main opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.
His Strengths: “She’s everywhere, with a lot of votes.”
His weakness: “It’s at the education level, where it drops to 27 percent.”
His Strengths: “It’s among academics, where he gets 28% of the vote, that’s even more interesting.”
His weakness: “It’s his French-speaking vote, which is 7%. »
His Strengths: “It’s young people (36% of 18-34 year olds). »
His weakness: 58% (of his voter base) could change his mind
His Strengths: “It would be the second choice of CAQ voters (29%).”
His weakness: “It has only 5% to do with young people.”
His Strengths: “Quebec Region (26% PCQ vs 47% CAQ).”
His weakness: He is the second choice of 8% of voters.
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