January 29, 2023

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[SONDAGE] Quebec 2022: The real battle for the official opposition

[SONDAGE] Quebec 2022: The real battle for the official opposition

Although still in majority territory, François Legault continues his slow descent into voting intent, benefiting PQ stalwart Paul St-Pierre Plamenton. But above all, the fight for the official opposition leader post promises to be tight.

“This campaign is not to elect the Prime Minister, but to elect the Leader of the Opposition!” Says pollster Jean-Marc Léger, who took the pulse of Quebecers ahead of the last electoral blitz toward the Oct. 3 election.

Provincial Voting Objectives

37% Quebecers will choose Legault’s CAQ.

If provincial council elections were held today, which party would you vote for?

Dated September 25, 2022

DK/Rejection: 0%

With the support of 37% of the electorate, the CAQ is again moving towards a majority government. But not because of the good performance of Francois Legault, who has lost five points since the start of the campaign, but because of his performance in the past leaders’ debate, which was harshly judged by citizens.

“He is going down. For the CAQ, there is a possibility of an election in a week. The trend is not good, the campaign is not good”, Mr. Leger underlines.

However, the outgoing prime minister benefits from a “bonus at the ballot box” because his supporters are older and go to the polls more often.

Evolution of Voting Intentions

Dated September 25, 2022

Ascent of PQ

It is not known which party will come second and occupy the benches opposite the government in the National Assembly. The battle looks tight. “Don’t take it for granted that the Liberal Party is the official opposition,” warns the pollster.

See also  End of red zones in Quebec as of Monday

So far, Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon appear to be the two leaders who have performed well in this electoral marathon. But the palm of the party leader for organizing the most important uprising goes to the PQ. Since the outbreak of the war, he has increased his support by six points.

Certainty of the result

Is your decision final at the provincial level or is it possible to change your mind?

Dated September 25, 2022

“A dynamic has really been created around the PSPP since the first debate, which accelerated in the second debate. Unfortunately, he will run out of time, fortunately for François Legault, the campaign ends on October 3,” analyzes Jean-Marc Léger.

According to a Quebecers survey, the Parti Québécois pilot not only won the last showdown of leaders on Radio-Canada, but also had the best campaign of the past week.

“The positive attitude toward Jack Layton, beyond the divisions, factionalism and personal attacks, is most striking among Quebecers,” notes the pollster.

PCQ is “preeminent”

The needle no longer moves toward Eric Duheim, who equals voting intent. “The Conservative Party is on top,” notes Jean-Marc Léger. The growth potential of the former radio host is practically nil, being the second choice of 6% of voters.

Second choice

26% Quebecers will choose Paul Saint-Pierre Plamenton’s Parti Québécois.

Which of the following provincial political parties would be your 2nd choice?

Dated September 25, 2022

Others: 26%

If Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois still looks like Quebecers’ favorite opposition leader, his PQ rival is blowing his neck. A favorite among young people, the co-spokesperson of Québec solidaire has not yet succeeded in wooing their parents.

As 18-34-year-olds generally turn out to vote less than older people, a situation that could greatly harm unity on D-Day. For GND, voter turnout is important. “The higher the turnout, the more it helps them, the lower the turnout, the disaster for QS,” notes the pollster.

Dominic Anglette comes at the back of the pack based on his performance in the last televised clash. Even with 16% support, thanks to his strength among non-Francophones, the Liberal still dreams of official opposition leader.

Great campaign

Paul Saint-Pierre Plamonton comes first.

Which CM ran the best campaign last week?

Dated September 25, 2022

QP

Paul Saint Pierre
Plamonton

QS

Gabriel
Nato Dubois

PCQ

Eric
Duheim

CAQ

Francis
Legault

QLP

Dominica
English

DK / Denial: 30%

But nothing is certain. Liberal Party Morris-Richard, Verdun, Viau, Laval and M.me Anglade, Saint-Henri-Saint-Anne. The Liberals are in serious danger of losing Laval districts, as well as Laporte and La Piniere, the pollster notes.

However, Dominic Anglade must make sure he gets the vote to save the day. “Non-Francophone, it either votes Liberal or it doesn’t.”

method

An Internet survey was conducted among 1,023 Quebecers aged 18 or older who are eligible to vote in Quebec. Data was collected from September 23 to 25, 2022. A margin of error cannot be calculated for a panel sample, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1023 respondents is ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Want to do some research too? Sign up for LEO, Leger’s group: https://bit.ly/3raMw62.

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