Who will the Astros choose to replace Dusty Baker? Evaluation of managerial candidates

With Dusty Baker retiring, the Astros need a manager. But before they decide that, they must answer the question that has swirled around the organization for much of this season: Who makes that decision?

Is it owner Jim Crane, who still wields significant influence in baseball operations? Is it general manager Dana Brown entering his first season in charge? How influential were Hall of Fame advisors Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson in this process?

Anyone who watched the team’s trade deadline understands that Crane engineered the deal for Justin Verlander. Bagwell-Crane helped shape much of the Astros’ miserable 2023 winter, when Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley earned $105 million and combined for a negative 0.4 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference.

Bagwell and Crane will have a major role in management research alongside Brown. Those who work with and around Crane say he enjoys making a big splash and hiring big names. Bringing in Dusty Baker in 2020 is proof of that.

Whoever replaces Baker will inherit an impressive heart and Crean’s tremendous expectations to win. Despite the strange power structure in the front office, this is a key job with the potential for an eighth straight American League Championship Series appearance. Here are 12 names to keep an eye on, listed in alphabetical order.

Brad Ausmus

Former Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels manager

Ausmus, a former Astros fan who has remained close to Bagwell, nearly became Houston’s general manager last winter before hiring Crane Brown. Earlier this month, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that Ausmus is “interested in pursuing managerial jobs” this winter after serving as coach of Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic. Ausmus’s first two managerial stints with the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels did not end well. His Angels tenure included the overdose death of pitcher Tyler Skaggs and the subsequent revelation, under oath, that a communications director illegally purchased and distributed pills in the Angels clubhouse during the 2019 season. It’s hard to blame Ausmus, but the manager is in charge of the club. Logic suggests that Ausmus will have to answer tough questions if he gets an interview. Ausmus’s friendship with Bagwell, and how close he was to the GM job last winter, cannot be overstated when discussing his candidacy.

Craig’s advisor

Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers

Chancellor’s reunion with David Stearns and the Mets appears to be a reality, but it would be a dereliction of duty if the Astros don’t gauge his interest and try to secure an interview. Counsell is the most accomplished manager in this recruiting cycle, even if his postseason record leaves something to be desired. However, he led the small-market Milwaukee Brewers to three 90-win seasons, another 89-win campaign in 2019, and five postseason appearances. He’s a former player, which should please Bagwell and Jackson, but he just finished nine seasons in one of the sport’s most analytically advanced organizations. And if Crane wants to make a splash, no one will score more than the chancellor’s temptation.

Joe Espada

Houston Astros bench coach

If maintaining continuity is the Astros’ goal, the Espada is the most logical choice. He has been Houston’s bench coach since 2018 and has formed a close relationship with most of the team’s key players. Espada has interviewed for at least six managerial jobs since arriving in Houston, but has never broken through, calling into question why it would be so difficult for such an attractive candidate to become a manager. There is no job more suited to the Espada than Houston’s. He should get a formal interview, and Crane, Bagwell and Brown should look no further than the ninth inning of Game 5 in the ALCS for an example of how Espada handles pressure. The two decisions he made, and the order in which Espada sent them out, hastened the Astros’ comeback after the bench-clearing incident and Baker’s firing.

Mark Kotsay

Oakland manager A

Kotsay interviewed with the Astros in 2020 and, according to some involved in the process, emerged as one of the standout players before Crane eventually settled on Baker. Kotsay is winless in Auckland, but has kept the club together this season after a poor start. Houston saw that firsthand in September, when the A’s got two out of three at Minute Maid Park amid the Astros’ playoff push. Kotsay is under contract with the A’s through the 2024 season and has a club option for 2025. Two years ago, Oakland allowed Bob Melvin to interview with the San Diego Padres and leave for their managerial job when the A’s rebuild began. Could a similar situation unfold here?

The inclusion of Kotsay here as a current manager under contract would raise similar questions about whether a reunion with AJ Hinch is possible. Hinch, who is reportedly under contract through 2025, is building more momentum with a Detroit Tigers franchise that has much more stability than the Oakland franchise. It’s hard to imagine Hinch giving up on that after just three seasons.

Rodney Linares

Tampa Bay Rays bench coach

Linares once looked like a neighborhood Astros. Hired as a minor league coach in 1999, Linares spent 20 seasons in the Houston organization, including 12 as a minor league manager. Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers Jr, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Framber Valdez all played for him at one time or another during their minor league careers. The Tampa Bay Rays hired Linares after the Astros parted ways with him after the 2018 season. Linares managed a star-studded Dominican Republic team through the World Baseball Classic in March, working in one of the sport’s most progressive organizations and under one of its most celebrated managers in Kevin Cash. Linares still has many relationships within the Astros organization and is the only outside candidate who could maintain some stability if hired.

Omar Lopez

Houston Astros first base coach

Most of the discussion about internal candidates revolves around Espada, but Lopez has more managerial experience than anyone else on Houston’s current coaching staff. The 46-year-old managed 12 seasons in the Astros’ minor league system before being promoted to the major league team in 2019. In March, Lopez managed to lead the Venezuelan team to the semifinals of the World Baseball Classic as well, before eventually losing Against the USA team. . Lopez is close to second baseman Jose Altuve, whom he helped sign as a 16-year-old from Venezuela and managed Altuve’s first full season in professional baseball. Lopez spent 25 seasons in the Astros organization, which is a long time to merit legitimate consideration for the job.

Joe Maddon

Former manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs, and Los Angeles Angels

Maddon is open to management again after his failed Angels tenure — but why that raises questions about whether he’s an ideal candidate for the Astros. In the wake of his firing last year, Maddon described a rift between the Angels’ analytical bent and his baseball instincts when it comes to decision-making.

“I’m interested in analytics, but not to the extent that everyone wants to shove it down your throat,” Maddon told Ken Rosenthal shortly after his firing. “Real baseball players have been somewhat affected by all of this. You can’t go to the ballpark and have some fun and play baseball. It’s too controlled by front offices these days.”

Despite claims to the contrary, the Astros won’t shy away from analytics. Brown allowed Baker complete independence in his on-field decisions, but he publicly disagreed with some of them on numerous occasions. If Maddon is given the same leeway, and allowed to absorb the deluge of information presented to him by Houston’s front office, few managers carry the same cache. As mentioned earlier, Crane enjoys associating himself with these names.

Don Mattingly

Toronto Blue Jays bench coach

Speaking of big names, there are few more attractive than Donnie Baseball – and Jackson could provide his boss with a better analysis of Mattingly than most. Mattingly’s managerial winning percentage of .483 isn’t exciting, but most of the setbacks came during a difficult period with the Miami Marlins, who suffered the sudden death of homegrown player Jose Fernandez and the subsequent trade at the hands of Mattingly.

Buck Showalter

Former manager of the Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Yankees and New York Mets

Showalter interviewed for the Astros job when it went to Baker. He is interested in coaching again after his offseason stint with the Mets, and reports have linked him to the Los Angeles Angels, where he remains close to general manager Perry Minasian. However, Showalter is, in some ways, similar to Baker and it’s worth wondering if the Astros want to go in a different direction philosophically. However, Showalter fits Crane’s desire for a big name.

Will Venable

Texas Rangers Assistant Manager

Venable was interviewed in 2020 as well. He has already declined an interview request with the Mets, according to the New York Post, and the Rangers’ place in the World Series could delay any potential overtures from the Astros. Venable, a 40-year-old Princeton graduate who played nine seasons in the major leagues, could fit into the aforementioned “different philosophical direction.” Crane could enjoy poaching one of the Rangers’ top rookie coaches as well, especially given how the Astros’ 2023 season ended.

Walt Weiss; Eric Young

Atlanta Braves bench coach. Atlanta Braves first base coach

In a scenario where Brown has complete autonomy to hire his own manager, the two Atlanta Braves coaches are obvious candidates. Brown spent four seasons with the Braves before arriving in Houston last February. He and Young were high school teammates at New Brunswick High School while Weiss has four years of managerial experience with the Colorado Rockies.

(Top photo of Osmus: Rick Osentoski/USA Today)