Excessive death toll in Quebec | Significantly improved record in 2021

After a tough start to the epidemic, Quebec seems to have significantly improved its record in terms of high mortality since the beginning of 2021. The province has reported fewer deaths than expected since the beginning of this year, new data reveals.

Henri Ouellette-Vizina

Henri Ouellette-Vizina

Pierre-Andre Normandin

Pierre-Andre Normandin

New data released by the Statistics Institute (ISQ) on Wednesday shows that since the beginning of 2021, the death rate in Quebec has actually been 2% lower than forecast. This report contradicts the report that caused 7% more deaths in Govt-19 province in 2020. Faced with the reversal of this trend, Quebec, after 18 months of infection, has an overall mortality rate of about 4%.

So it’s official: Quebec has not been the most populous Canadian province since the outbreak began. The title now goes to Alberta, which has actually recorded 13% more deaths since the beginning of 2021.

Meanwhile, in our neighboring countries in the south, the global maximum mortality rate reached 15% in 2020, and then 17% from the beginning of 2021. In Canada, last summer, in July, against the backdrop of the jungle, the highest death toll peaked monthly. A severe fire broke out in the western part of the country.

There are many reasons for the high mortality rate, but the ISQ identifies two main causes. “Some deaths that are usually expected to occur in 2020 or 2021 are the first. Because deaths are concentrated in CHSLDs, there are, of course, many people at the end of their lives. Press.

“Excessive death (or overcrowding) is defined as the number of deaths from all causes that are higher than expected in” normal times. “

Source: Quebec National Public Health Institute

The “protective” effect of health measures

Another factor, says the demographic expert, is the “protective effect of health measures” maintained in Quebec for longer than in other provinces. “For example, last winter, these measures completely eliminated the cycle of influenza. In 2018, we had 1,000 related deaths,” said the expert.

Unlike Quebec, Alberta, which maintained the most rigorous health measures last summer, eliminated its own role before facing a sharp increase in hospital and deaths and putting them back in place.

In short, in other parts of Canada, the death toll was “initially lower than in Quebec, but has generally been high since July 2020”, according to a report released Wednesday. We also emphasize that “18 months after the outbreak, the death toll in other parts of Canada was the same as in Quebec.”

The authors of this report estimate that life expectancy in Quebec in 2020 is “80.6 years for men and 84.0 years for women, which represents a corresponding decrease of 6 and 9 months compared to 2019.” Has been on the rise for many years. Life expectancy is lower in many countries, often significantly more than in Quebec, ”they note.

Given the future of excessive mortality in Quebec, it is difficult to pinpoint, says Flori-Bayur. “The long-term effect has not yet been discovered. There are major concerns with the new variant [Omicron], But the news on this page is very good. The truth is, it’s too early to make any assumptions about what will happen in the long run. Both negative and positive factors, such as technological advances over the past year, are likely to come into play, ”he says.

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