October 7, 2022

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[SONDAGE] Did the debate change voting intentions?

[SONDAGE] Did the debate change voting intentions?

The PQ is coming out of the shadows and gaining support from the CAQ, which should tighten regional struggles, a new Léger-Le Journal-TVA-Qub poll reveals.

The first debate moved the voting intention needle by a few points for all parties except the CAQ, which remains at 38% despite several indicators in the yellow, a poll conducted from September 16 to 18 showed. face to face of VAT.

Provincial Voting Objectives

38% Quebecers will elect CAQ’s Legault.

If provincial council elections were held today, which party would you vote for?

Dated September 19, 2022

DK/Rejection: 1%

“Although CAQ says its main opponent is QS, there are four opponents,” said Léger’s vice-president Christian Bourque. “It’s going to be tighter in a lot of the big districts than we thought when we started this campaign. »

The Parti Québécois is still dead last, having started with 9%, but its voting intentions have now risen to 13%.

“It’s still +4 for PQ since the start of the campaign […] There is actually a certain movement going on,” said Mr. Borg says.

The other three parties gain or lose one point and receive 16% of all voting intent. This is the first time that Eric Duhaime’s Conservative Party has teamed up with QS and PLQ in this campaign.

Especially in the Quebec region, the PQ’s rise is at the expense of the CAQ, which finds itself with 36% support, making the fight against Eric Duhaime even tighter (25%).

A good discussion

A great performance by Chef Paul St-Pierre Plamonton face to face Improving his party’s score is not new.

“There are two winners in this debate: Paul St-Pierre Plamonton and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois,” Mr. Borg says.

According to 1046 respondents, Mr. St-Pierre Plamonton had the second best performance behind Gabriel Nateu-Dubois. It should be noted, however, that among those aged 55 and over, the PSPP is far ahead of François Legault.

“This is an important indicator for the PQ leader and a yellow light for CAQ members who have voters that the CAQ must continue to attract,” said Mr. Borg explains. But last week, the PSPP took over as Prime Minister. »

François Legault, who admitted he could do better in the next debate, finished second to last with 9%. Among those 55 and older, the percentage was the same.

Second choice

22% Quebecers will choose Paul Saint-Pierre Plamenton’s Parti Québécois.

Which of the following provincial political parties would be your 2nd choice?

Dated September 19, 2022

Others: 32%

Favorite Leaders of Opposition

GND and PSPP are seen as the preferred opposition leaders by 28% and 21% of respondents respectively.

“At the start of the campaign, ‘Is the PSPP going to come out of the shadows?’ When we said that, it was done. He was 4th at the start of the campaign and is now 2nd. »

As for who campaigned best last week, the PSPP, GND and François Legault all scored 16% best.

Yellow lights

However, for François Legault, the result is not good news. “When you have 38% of voting intentions, only 16% say you’re running a great campaign… For many, that’s ‘right,'” Mr. Borg believes.

“Not even half (43%) of those voting for the CAQ today say Francois Legault is running a good campaign,” Mr. Borg says.

“Not all is happy on the side of the forwards,” he says.

Great campaign

Many party leaders are tied up.

Which CM ran the best campaign last week?

Dated September 19, 2022




Paul Saint Pierre


Nato Dubois





DK / Refusal: 34%

For the Liberal Party and Dominic Anglade, the decline continues. Only 3% of respondents believe he won the debate and only 6% believe he campaigned well last week.

“It was a tough campaign, there were many risks […] “There seems to be something that doesn’t always rise uniformly among liberals,” said Mr. Borg said.


The online survey was conducted between September 16 and 18, 2022 among 1,046 Quebecers aged 18 and over who are eligible to vote in Quebec. Respondents had to express themselves in French or English and were randomly recruited using LEO’s online panel. The maximum margin of error for a sample of 1046 respondents is plus or minus 3% 19 times out of 20.

Want to do some research too? Sign up for LEO, Leger’s group: https://bit.ly/3raMw62

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